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Predicting Biodiversity with GJAM

As part of the Predicting Biodiversity with Generalized Joint Attribute Modeling (PBGJAM) project, I developed predictions of suitable habitat for 100 bird species in current conditions and under two future climate change scenarios. These predictions combine information from the current abundances of species across different environmental conditions with projected environmental conditions under climate change. For example, if we know the temperature range of the areas where a species lives today, and we know what regions will fall within that temperature range in 100 years, we can predict where the species will live in 100 years. It is important to remember that these are maps of habitat suitability, not actual species range. If there is suitable habitat in an area that a species can’t get to, it will not actually be found there.


Interactive maps on the PBGJAM website show current habitat suitability for each species. Use the toggles in the menu to view the expected habitat suitability at two time periods in the future for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Current and past lab members have developed similar interactive maps for beetles (Christopher Kilner), trees (Shubhi Sharma), and small mammals (Amanda Schwantes), all of which are available on the website.

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